Fertility and contraceptive dynamics amidst COVID-19: who is at greatest risk for unintended pregnancy among a cohort of adolescents and young adults in Nairobi, Kenya?

OBJECTIVES: Among youth in Nairobi, we (1) characterised fertility and contraceptive use dynamics by gender; (2) estimated pregnancy prevalence over the pandemic; and (3) assessed factors associated with unintended pandemic pregnancy for young women. DESIGN: Longitudinal analyses use cohort data collected at three timepoints prior to and during the COVID-19 pandemic: June to August 2019 (pre-pandemic), August to October 2020 (12-month follow-up) and April to May 2021 (18-month follow-up). SETTING: Nairobi, Kenya. PARTICIPANTS: At initial cohort recruitment, eligible youth were aged 15-24 years, unmarried and residing in Nairobi for at least 1 year. Within-timepoint analyses were restricted to participants with survey data per round; trend and prospective analyses were restricted to those with complete data at all three timepoints (n=586 young men, n=589 young women). PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary outcomes comprised fertility and contraceptive use for both genders, and pregnancy for young women. Unintended pandemic pregnancy (assessed at 18-month follow-up) was defined as a current or past 6-month pregnancy with intent to delay pregnancy for more than 1 year at 2020 survey. RESULTS: While fertility intentions remained stable, contraceptive dynamics varied by gender-young men both adopted and discontinued coital-dependent methods, whereas young women adopted coital-dependent or short-acting methods at 12-month follow-up (2020). Current pregnancy was highest at 2020 (4.8%), and approximately 2% at 2019 and 2021. Unintended pandemic pregnancy prevalence was 6.1%, with increased odds for young women recently married (adjusted OR (aOR)=3.79; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.83-7.86); recent contraceptive use was protective against unintended pandemic pregnancy (aOR=0.23; 95% CI 0.11-0.47). CONCLUSIONS: Current pregnancy in Nairobi was highest at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic (2020), and subsided to pre-pandemic levels by 2021 data collection; however, requires further monitoring. New marriages posed considerable risk for unintended pandemic pregnancy. Contraceptive use remains a crucial preventive strategy to averting unintended pregnancy, particularly for married young women.

Stability and change in fertility intentions in response to the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya

Fertility intentions are expected to decline due to the COVID-19 pandemic but limited empirical research on this topic has been conducted in sub-Saharan Africa. Longitudinal data from Kenya, with baseline (November 2019) and follow-up (June 2020) data, were used to 1) assess the extent to which individual-level fertility intentions changed, and 2) examine how security, specifically economic and health security, affected fertility intentions. The final sample included 3,095 women. The primary outcomes were change in quantum and timing. Exploratory analyses described overall changes within the sample and logistic regression models assessed sociodemographic and COVID-19 related correlates of change, specifically income loss at the household level, food insecurity, and ability to socially distance. Approximately 85% of women reported consistent fertility intentions related to both the number and timing of childbearing. No COVID-19-related factors were related to changing quantum intentions. Women who reported chronic food insecurity had 4.78 times the odds of accelerating their desired timing to next birth compared to those who reported no food insecurity (95% CI: 1.53–14.93), with a significant interaction by wealth. The COVID-19 pandemic did not lead to widespread changes in fertility intentions in Kenya, though the most vulnerable women may have accelerated their childbearing intentions.

Disruptions to youth contraceptive use during COVID-19: Mixed-methods results from Nairobi, Kenya

Ensuring access to sexual and reproductive health (SRH) services for adolescents is a global priority, given the detrimental health and economic impact of unintended pregnancies. To examine whether and how COVID-19 affected access to SRH services, we use mixed-methods data from young men and women in Nairobi, Kenya to identify those at greatest risk of contraceptive disruptions during COVID-19 restrictions. Analyses utilize cross-sectional data collected from August to October 2020 from an existing cohort of youth aged 16–26. Unadjusted and adjusted logistic regression examined sociodemographic, contraceptive, and COVID-19-related correlates of contraceptive disruption among users of contraception. Qualitative data were collected concurrently via focus group discussions (n = 64, 8 groups) and in-depth interviews (n = 20), with matrices synthesizing emergent challenges to obtaining contraception by gender. Among those using contraception, both young men (40.4%) and young women (34.6%) faced difficulties obtaining contraception during COVID-19. Among young men, difficulty was observed particularly for those unable to meet their basic needs (aOR = 1.60;p = 0.05). Among young women, risk centered around those with multiple partners (aOR = 1.91;p = 0.01), or who procured their method from a hospital (aOR = 1.71;p = 0.04) or clinic (aOR = 2.14;p = 0.03). Qualitative data highlight economic barriers to obtaining contraceptives, namely job loss and limited supply of free methods previously available. Universal access to a variety of contraceptive methods during global health emergencies, including long-acting reversible methods, is an essential priority to help youth avert unintended pregnancies and withstand periods of disruptions to services. Non-judgmental, youth-friendly services must remain accessible throughout the pandemic into the post-COVID-19 period.

Trends in fertility intentions and contraceptive practices in the context of COVID-19 in sub-Saharan Africa: insights from four national and regional population-based cohorts.

OBJECTIVES: Studies in several sub-Saharan geographies conducted early in the COVID-19 pandemic suggested little impact on contraceptive behaviours. Initial results may mask widening disparities with rising poverty, and changes to women's pregnancy desires and contraceptive use amid prolonged health service disruptions. This study examined trends in contraceptive behaviours in four sub-Saharan African settings 1 year into the pandemic. DESIGN: Nationally and regionally representative longitudinal surveys. SETTING: Burkina Faso, Kenya, Democratic Republic of Congo (Kinshasa) and Nigeria (Lagos). PARTICIPANTS: Women aged 15-49 years with sample size ranging from 1469 in Nigeria to 9477 in Kenya. OUTCOME MEASURES: Fertility preferences, contraceptive use and unintended pregnancies measured before COVID-19 (November 2019 to January 2020) and during COVID-19 (November 2020 to January 2021). ANALYSIS: We described population-level and individual-level changes by socioeconomic characteristics using generalised equation modelling. We used logistic regression models to identify factors related to contraceptive adoption and discontinuation and to experiencing an unintended pregnancy. RESULTS: At the population level, we found no change in women's exposure to unintended pregnancy risk, alongside 5-9 percentage point increases in contraceptive prevalence in Burkina Faso, Kenya and Lagos. Reliance on provider-dependent methods dropped by 2 and 4 percentage points in Kenya and Burkina Faso, respectively, although these declines were not statistically significant. Between 1.0% and 2.8% of women across sites experienced an unintended pregnancy during COVID-19, with no significant change over time. Individual-level trajectories showed contraceptive adoption was more common than discontinuation in Burkina Faso, Kenya and Lagos, with little difference by sociodemographic characteristics. Women's COVID-19-related economic vulnerability was unrelated to unintended pregnancy across sites. CONCLUSIONS: This study highlights the resilience of African women across diverse settings in sustaining contraceptive practices amid the COVID-19 pandemic. However, with reports of rising poverty in sub-Saharan Africa, there is continued need to monitor access to essential sexual and reproductive health services.

Violence against women from partners and other household members during COVID-19 in Burkina Faso and Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Global evidence indicates increases in gender-based violence (GBV) during the COVID-19 pandemic following mitigation measures, such as stay at home orders. Indirect effects of the pandemic, including income loss, strained social support, and closed or inaccessible violence response services, may further exacerbate GBV and undermine help-seeking. In Kenya and Burkina Faso, as in many settings, GBV was prevalent prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. Studies specific to COVID-impact on GBV in Kenya indicate mixed results and there remains a lack of evidence from Burkina Faso. Our study takes a comprehensive lens by addressing both intimate partner violence (IPV) and non-partner household abuse through the COVID-19 pandemic in two priority settings. METHODS: Annual, national cross-sections of women ages 15-49 completed survey data collection in November-December 2020 and December 2020-March 2021; the GBV module was limited to one woman per household [Kenya n = 6715; Burkina n = 4065]. Descriptive statistics, Venn diagrams, and logistic and multinomial regression characterized prevalence of IPV and other household abuse, frequency relative to the COVID-19 pandemic, help-seeking behaviors, and predictors of IPV and household abuse across the socioecological framework. RESULTS: In both settings, past-year IPV prevalence exceeded non-partner household abuse (Kenya: 23.5%IPV, 11.0%household; Burkina Faso: 25.7%IPV, 16.2%household). Over half of those affected in each setting did not seek help; those that did turned first to family. Among those with past-year experiences, increased frequency since COVID-19 was noted for IPV (16.0%Burkina Faso; 33.6%Kenya) and household violence (14.3%Burkina Faso; 26.2%Kenya). Both context-specific (i.e., financial autonomy in Burkina Faso) and universal (i.e., COVID-related income loss) risk factors emerged. CONCLUSION: Past-year IPV and household violence against women in Kenya and Burkina Faso were prevalent, and in some cases, intensified during the COVID-19 pandemic. Across settings, help-seeking from formal services was notably low, likely reflecting shame, blame, and stigmatization identified as barriers in pre-COVID literature. Both primary prevention and survivor-centered support services, including those related to economic empowerment, should be integrated within COVID-recovery efforts, and extended into the post-pandemic period to fully meet women's safety needs.

Self-injected contraceptives: does the investment reflect women's preferences?

Subcutaneous depot medroxyprogesterone acetate (DMPA-SC) is an innovative contraceptive method aimed at meeting women's unique circumstances and needs, largely due to its ability to be self-injected. Substantial research and advocacy investments have been made to promote roll-out of DMPA-SC across sub-Saharan Africa. To date, research on the demand for DMPA-SC as a self-injectable method has been conducted largely with healthcare providers, via qualitative research, or with highly specific subsamples that are not population based. Using three recent rounds of data from Performance Monitoring for Action, we examined population-representative trends in demand, use, and preference for self-injection among current non-users in Burkina Faso, the Democratic Republic of Congo (Kinshasa and Kongo Central regions), Kenya, and Nigeria (Lagos and Kano States). We found that while over 80.0% of women had heard of injectables across settings, few women had heard of self-injection (ranging from 13.0% in Kenya to 24.8% in Burkina Faso). Despite initial increases in DMPA-SC prevalence, DMPA-SC usage began to stagnate or even decrease in all settings in the recent three years (except in Nigeria-Kano). Few (0.0%-16.7%) current DMPA-SC users were self-injecting, and the majority instead were relying on a healthcare provider for administration of DMPA-SC. Among current contraceptive non-users wishing to use an injectable in the future, only 1.5%-11.4% preferred to self-inject. Our results show that self-injection is uncommon, and demand for self-injection is very limited across six settings, calling for further qualitative and quantitative research on women's views on DMPA-SC and self-injection and, ultimately, their contraceptive preferences and needs.

Product-access challenges to menstrual health throughout the COVID-19 pandemic among a cohort of adolescent girls and young women in Nairobi, Kenya.

Background: Access to menstrual hygiene products enables positive health for adolescent girls and young women (AGYW). Among AGYW in Nairobi, Kenya, this prospective mixed-methods study characterised menstrual health product-access challenges at two time points during the COVID-19 pandemic; assessed trajectories over the pandemic; and examined factors associated with product-access trajectories. Methods: Data were collected from an AGYW cohort in August-October 2020 and March-June 2021 (n=591). The prevalence of menstrual health product-access challenges was calculated per timepoint, with trajectories characterizing product-access challenges over time. Logistic regression models examined associations with any product-access challenge throughout the pandemic; multinomial and logistic regressions further assessed factors associated with trajectories. Qualitative data contextualize results. Findings: In 2020, 52·0% of AGYW experienced a menstrual health product-access challenge; approximately six months later, this proportion dropped to 30·3%. Product-access challenges during the pandemic were heightened for AGYW with secondary or lower education (aOR=2·40; p<0·001), living with parents (aOR=1·86; p=0·05), not the prime earner (aOR=2·27; p=0·05); and unable to meet their basic needs (aOR=2·25; p<0·001). Between timepoints, 38·0% experienced no product-access challenge and 31·7% resolved, however, 10·2% acquired a challenge and 20·1% experienced sustained challenges. Acquired product-access challenges, compared to no challenges, were concentrated among those living with parents (aOR=3·21; p=0·05); multinomial models further elucidated nuances. Qualitative data indicate deprioritization of menstrual health within household budgets as a contributor. Interpretation: Menstrual health product-access challenges are prevalent among AGYW during the pandemic; barriers were primarily financial. Results may reflect endemic product-access gaps amplified by COVID-specific constraints. Ensuring access to menstrual products is essential to ensure AGYW's health needs. Funding: This work was supported, in whole, by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation [010481].

Gendered time use during COVID-19 among adolescents and young adults in Nairobi, Kenya.

Background: Gender disparities in time use contribute to poor outcomes in women. Large-scale disruptions can affect time use. The objectives of this study were to characterize time use across the pandemic by gender and to assess how gender associates with 2021-time use, overall and by 2020 economic dependency status. Methods: A prospective cohort of youth in Nairobi, Kenya, completed phone-based surveys in August-October 2020 and April-May 2021. Time use was characterized at both time points and 1,777 participants with complete time use data at both time points were included in the analysis. 2021-time use was regressed on gender and stratified by 2020 economic dependency status. Findings: At both time points, significant gender differences in time use found young men with more time on paid work and less time on domestic work [1·6 h; 95% CI: 1·1, 2·2] and [-1·9 h; 95% CI: -1·1, -1·5], respectively; 2021. In adjusted models, the gender differential in unpaid domestic work were significant overall and at all levels of economic dependency (dependent, semi-dependent, independent). The gender differential in paid work was evident among semi-dependent and independent. Interpretation: Young women spent less time on paid work and more time on domestic duties than male counterparts, consistently across a six-month period during the pandemic, suggesting gendered time poverty. Resulting gendered gaps in earnings can contribute to women's longer-term economic vulnerability. Funding: This work was supported by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation [010481].

Stability and change in fertility intentions in response to the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya.

Fertility intentions are expected to decline due to the COVID-19 pandemic but limited empirical research on this topic has been conducted in sub-Saharan Africa. Longitudinal data from Kenya, with baseline (November 2019) and follow-up (June 2020) data, were used to 1) assess the extent to which individual-level fertility intentions changed, and 2) examine how security, specifically economic and health security, affected fertility intentions. The final sample included 3,095 women. The primary outcomes were change in quantum and timing. Exploratory analyses described overall changes within the sample and logistic regression models assessed sociodemographic and COVID-19 related correlates of change, specifically income loss at the household level, food insecurity, and ability to socially distance. Approximately 85% of women reported consistent fertility intentions related to both the number and timing of childbearing. No COVID-19-related factors were related to changing quantum intentions. Women who reported chronic food insecurity had 4.78 times the odds of accelerating their desired timing to next birth compared to those who reported no food insecurity (95% CI: 1.53-14.93), with a significant interaction by wealth. The COVID-19 pandemic did not lead to widespread changes in fertility intentions in Kenya, though the most vulnerable women may have accelerated their childbearing intentions.

Gender-based violence during COVID-19 among adolescent girls and young women in Nairobi, Kenya: a mixed-methods prospective study over 18 months.

INTRODUCTION: Adolescent girls and young women (AGYW) disproportionately experience gender-based violence (GBV), which can increase during emergencies like the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: A cohort of youth ages 15-24 in Nairobi, Kenya was surveyed at three time points over an 18-month period prior to and during the COVID-19 pandemic: June-August 2019 (prepandemic), August-October 2020 (12-month follow-up) and May 2021 (18-month follow-up). We characterise (1) prevalence, relative timing and help-seeking for leading forms of GBV, (2) GBV trajectories over 18 months and (3) associations of individual, dyad and COVID-related factors on GBV trajectories among AGYW (n=612) in Nairobi, Kenya. Virtual focus group discussions (n=12) and interviews (n=40) contextualise quantitative results. RESULTS: Intimate partner violence (IPV) prevalence hovered at 17% across time points (ever at pre-pandemic; past 12 months at 12-month follow-up (2020); past 6 months at 18-month follow-up (2021)); non-partner sexual violence (SV) was 3% at 12-month and 18-month follow-up. Overall, 27.6% of AGYW experienced IPV during the pandemic. IPV during the pandemic was associated with work as the primary pre-COVID activity, low social support and partner age difference >4 years. Among AGYW partnered at all three time points, 66.2% stayed IPV-free (no IPV), 9.2% saw IPV resolve by 18-month follow-up, while 11.1% had IPV start and 13.6% experienced intermittent IPV. Help-seeking for IPV and SV in 2020 (11.1% and 4.6%, respectively) increased to 21.7% and 15.1%, respectively, by 2021. Qualitative results speak to impacts of curfews, and pandemic-related financial stress in prompting conflict and threatening traditional gender roles, and underlying conditions that enable IPV. CONCLUSION: The persistence of IPV against AGYW in Nairobi prior to and during the COVID-19 pandemic reflects endemic conditions and pandemic-specific stressors. Youth, including unmarried youth, remain a priority population for GBV prevention and survivor-centred response.

Gendered health, economic, social and safety impact of COVID-19 on adolescents and young adults in Nairobi, Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Infectious disease outbreaks like COVID-19 and their mitigation measures can exacerbate underlying gender disparities, particularly among adolescents and young adults in densely populated urban settings. METHODS: An existing cohort of youth ages 16-26 in Nairobi, Kenya completed a phone-based survey in August-October 2020 (n = 1217), supplemented by virtual focus group discussions and interviews with youth and stakeholders, to examine economic, health, social, and safety experiences during COVID-19, and gender disparities therein. RESULTS: COVID-19 risk perception was high with a gender differential favoring young women (95.5% vs. 84.2%; p<0.001); youth described mixed concern and challenges to prevention. During COVID-19, gender symmetry was observed in constrained access to contraception among contraceptive users (40.4% men; 34.6% women) and depressive symptoms (21.8% men; 24.3% women). Gender disparities rendered young women disproportionately unable to meet basic economic needs (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 1.21; p<0.05) and in need of healthcare during the pandemic (aOR = 1.59; p<0.001). At a bivariate level, women had lower full decisional control to leave the house (40.0% vs. 53.2%) and less consistent access to safe, private internet (26.1% vs. 40.2%), while men disproportionately experienced police interactions (60.1%, 55.2% of which included extortion). Gender-specific concerns for women included menstrual hygiene access challenges (52.0%), increased reliance on transactional partnerships, and gender-based violence, with 17.3% reporting past-year partner violence and 3.0% non-partner sexual violence. Qualitative results contextualize the mental health impact of economic disruption and isolation, and, among young women, privacy constraints. IMPLICATIONS: Youth and young adults face gendered impacts of COVID-19, reflecting both underlying disparities and the pandemic's economic and social shock. Economic, health and technology-based supports must ensure equitable access for young women. Gender-responsive recovery efforts are necessary and must address the unique needs of youth.

Need for and use of contraception by women before and during COVID-19 in four sub-Saharan African geographies: results from population-based national or regional cohort surveys.

BACKGROUND: Although hindrances to the sexual and reproductive health of women are expected because of COVID-19, the actual effect of the pandemic on contraceptive use and unintended pregnancy risk in women, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, remains largely unknown. We aimed to examine population-level changes in the need for and use of contraception by women during the COVID-19 pandemic, determine if these changes differed by sociodemographic characteristics, and compare observed changes during the COVID-19 pandemic with trends in the 2 preceding years. METHODS: In this study, we used four rounds of Performance Monitoring for Action (PMA) population-based survey data collected in four geographies: two at the country level (Burkina Faso and Kenya) and two at the subnational level (Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo and Lagos, Nigeria). These geographies were selected for this study as they completed surveys immediately before the onset of COVID-19 and implemented a follow-up specific to COVID-19. The first round comprised the baseline PMA panel survey implemented between November, 2019, and February, 2020 (referred to as baseline). The second round comprised telephone-based follow-up surveys between May 28 and July 20, 2020 (referred to as COVID-19 follow-up). The third and fourth rounds comprised two previous cross-sectional survey rounds implemented in the same geographies between 2017 and 2019. FINDINGS: Our analyses were restricted to 7245 women in union (married or living with a partner, as if married) who were interviewed at baseline and COVID-19 follow-up. The proportion of women in need of contraception significantly increased in Lagos only, by 5·81 percentage points (from 74·5% to 80·3%). Contraceptive use among women in need increased significantly in the two rural geographies, with a 17·37 percentage point increase in rural Burkina Faso (30·7% to 48·1%) and a 7·35 percentage point increase in rural Kenya (71·6% to 78·9%). These overall trends mask several distinct patterns by sociodemographic group. Specifically, there was an increase in the need for contraception among nulliparous women across all geographies investigated. INTERPRETATION: Our findings do not support the anticipated deleterious effect of COVID-19 on access to and use of contraceptive services by women in the earliest stages of the pandemic. Although these results are largely encouraging, we warn that these trends might not be sustainable throughout prolonged economic hardship and service disruptions. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. TRANSLATION: For the French translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Contraceptive dynamics during COVID-19 in sub-Saharan Africa: longitudinal evidence from Burkina Faso and Kenya.

INTRODUCTION: Evidence from health emergencies suggests COVID-19 will disrupt women's sexual and reproductive health (SRH). In sub-Saharan Africa, which experiences the highest rates of unintended pregnancy and unsafe abortion globally, COVID-19 is projected to slow recent progress toward universal access to contraceptive services. METHODS: We used longitudinal data collected from women at risk of unintended pregnancy in Burkina Faso (n=1186) and Kenya (n=2784) before (November 2019-February 2020) and during (May-July 2020) COVID-19 to quantify contraceptive dynamics during COVID-19; examine sociodemographic factors and COVID-19 experiences related to contraceptive dynamics; and assess COVID-19-related reasons for contraceptive non-use. Bivariate and multivariate logistic regressions were used to examine correlates of contraceptive dynamics amid COVID-19. RESULTS: Most women did not change their contraceptive status during COVID-19 (68.6% in Burkina Faso and 81.6% in Kenya) and those who did were more likely to adopt a method (25.4% and 13.1%, respectively) than to discontinue (6.0% and 5.3%, respectively). Most women who switched contraceptives were using methods as or more effective than their pre-pandemic contraception. Economic instability related to COVID-19 was associated with increased contraceptive protection in Burkina Faso but not in Kenya. Altogether, 14.4% of non-contraceptive users in Kenya and 3.8% in Burkina Faso identified COVID-19-related reasons for non-use. CONCLUSIONS: The vast majority of women at risk of unintended pregnancy did not change their contraceptive status during COVID-19, and more women adopted than discontinued methods. A minority of women reported COVID-19-related reasons for non-use, underscoring the importance of expanding safe modes of service delivery during health crises.

Mixed-methods study on pharmacies as contraception providers to Kenyan young people: who uses them and why?

OBJECTIVES: This study sought to answer two questions: (1) what are the characteristics of young Kenyans aged 18-24 who use contraception obtained at pharmacies, and (2) why are pharmacies appealing sources of contraception? DESIGN AND SETTING: This was a mixed-methods study in one peri-urban part of Kwale County, Kenya. Methods included cross-sectional survey (n=740), six focus group discussions, 18 in-depth interviews and 25 key-informant interviews. Quantitative data analysis identified factors pushing young people to pharmacies for modern contraception versus other sources. Qualitative data analysis identified reasons pharmacies were perceived to be appealing to young clients. PARTICIPANTS: Participants were (1) young people aged 18-24 from the study area, including a subset who had recently purchased contraception from a pharmacy;or (2) pharmacy personnel and pharmacy stakeholders. RESULTS: Among surveyed participants who had ever had sexual intercourse and had used modern contraception at last sexual intercourse, 59% obtained it from a pharmacy. In multivariable analysis, participants who used a condom or emergency contraception as well as those living alone were significantly more likely to get contraception from pharmacies. Pharmacies were valued for their convenience, privacy, non-judgmental and personable staff, service speed, as well as predictable and affordable prices. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings indicate a high percentage of young people in Coastal Kenya use pharmacies for contraception. Our inclusion of emergency contraception users partially explains this. Pharmacies were perceived to be everything that health facilities are not: fast, private and non-limiting. Policy-makers should recognise the role of pharmacies as contraception providers and look for opportunities to link pharmacies to the public health system. This would create a network of accessible and appealing contraception services for young people.